Tough year ahead for employees but more hope for job seekers (Armenian)

11 March 2010



Privately held businesses (PHBs) across the world decreased their employee numbers during 2009, the first time since Grant Thornton began researching employment issues in its International Business Report (IBR) in 2003 that the number of businesses cutting headcount has exceeded those increasing it. The survey, of over 7,400 PHBs across 36 economies, shows a global balance* of -8% compared to +21% in 2009 - a drop of 29 percentage points.

While the majority of businesses around the world are more optimistic for 2010, employees would be wrong to think the worst is over. When asked about their intentions for employee salaries in the year ahead PHBs indicated that they were even less likely to give pay rises during 2010 than they were in 2009. 36% of businesses plan to offer no pay rise or reduce pay, compared to only 24% in 2009. And while 51% of employers did indicate that they plan to increase pay by inflation or above during 2010, this is down on last year when 64% made the same claim.

The global employment index shows businesses in some of the world's more mature economies suffering the greatest decreases in employee numbers, including Ireland (with a balance* of -54%), Spain, Denmark (both -38%) and the US (-33%) while emerging markets enjoyed some of the biggest increases in headcount during 2009, including Vietnam (+54%), India (+33%), Botswana (+31%) and the Philippines (+29%) (see figure 1).

According to the responses of the Armenian businessmen in 2010 their expectation for increase of the number of personnel has significantly downsized this year and is ranked +5% (compared to +54% in 2009). With regard to employee salaries in 2010 47% of PHBs in Armenia except no pay rise, with only 6% being optimistic about it.

Alex MacBeath, global leader, markets for Grant Thornton explains, "While job losses have been harsh in some economies, one of the features of this global recession is that unemployment has not, so far, been as high as originally feared. It is typical of the adaptability of privately held businesses that they have strived to retain their staff during the year."

While 2009 has been a difficult year, the future looks brighter. Businesses in 29 of the 36 economies surveyed expect to increase staff numbers in 2010, a global balance of +20% (compared to -4% in 2009).

The report also shows how creative privately held businesses became as they tried to avoid compulsory redundancies of permanent staff in 2009. 50% of businesses indicated that they needed to introduce measures to avoid redundancies and the survey results suggest that every possible approach was introduced. Reducing working hours (11%) and redeployment of staff (10%) were among the most popular measures globally but pay cuts, voluntary redundancies, career breaks, reduced benefits and laying off contract staff were all used to protect existing permanent staff and the business itself. It is noteworthy that 67% of the Armenian businesses have responded that they did not need to take special measures to avoid redundancies in the past year.

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